According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio has reached a record 218%, with total equity value near 68 trillion dollars versus roughly 31 trillion dollars in US GDP, an increase of 56 percentage points from prior levels as shared on X on December 30, 2025. According to Fortune’s 2001 interview with Warren Buffett, the market cap-to-GDP ratio is widely regarded as a top-down measure of aggregate equity valuation often called the Buffett Indicator. According to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED data referencing the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Full Cap Index and nominal GDP, US total market value has exceeded GDP multiple times since 2021, highlighting elevated aggregate valuations in recent years. According to Kaiko cross-asset research, BTC and ETH have frequently shown positive rolling correlations with US equities in risk-on and risk-off regimes, implying that extreme equity valuations can raise crypto beta to macro risk. According to Coin Metrics market structure reports, equity volatility and liquidity shifts have historically spilled over into crypto order books and funding conditions, so BTC and ETH traders often monitor US equity breadth and volatility alongside valuation gauges such as the Buffett Indicator.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio has reached a record 221% (source: The Kobeissi Letter). The ratio has jumped 58 percentage points since the April low and now stands 4.6 times the 2008 Financial Crisis low (source: The Kobeissi Letter). The metric previously peaked at 142% in the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble and has stayed above its ~87% long-term average for 13 years (source: The Kobeissi Letter). Warren Buffett has described market cap-to-GDP as probably the best single measure of where valuations stand, making today’s extreme reading trading-relevant for equity risk management such as de-risking, hedging, and factor tilt adjustments (source: Fortune 2001 interview with Warren Buffett). For crypto, BTC and ETH correlations with US equities increased materially in 2020–2022, so extreme equity valuation signals can inform risk-on/risk-off positioning and hedge ratios in digital assets (source: Fidelity Digital Assets 2022; source: CME Group 2023 research on BTC–S&P 500 correlation).